Despite an 11-12% increase in sales, Bharti Airtel Ltd is expected to post a 10-30% decline in net profit for the September quarter. The EBITDA margin is expected to grow both sequentially and yearly. Analysts predicted 30-50 lakh more subscribers for the quarter and an increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) due to user conversion from 2G to 4G and a higher number of days in the previous quarter.
Bharti Airtel is expected to earn Rs 1,936.90 crore in Q2, a 9.7 percent decrease from Rs 2,145.20 crore in the same quarter last year, according to Emkay Global. Net sales are expected to increase 11% year on year to Rs 38,311.10 crore, up from Rs 34,526.80 crore in the same period last year. The EBITDA margin is 52.6 percent, up from 52.3 percent in June and 51% in the previous quarter.
"With the addition of 4 million subscribers, the subscriber addition trend is likely to pick up from the previous quarter." The number of new data subscribers is expected to be 6.8 million. The conversion of users from 2G to 4G and a higher number of days in Q2 are predicted to boost APRU by 2.2% QoQ. As a result, revenue in the India mobility market is expected to increase by 2.3 percent year on year," Emkay added.
Prabhudas Lilladher forecasted a 28.5 percent year-on-year drop in adjusted earnings to Rs 1,534.80 crore. Bharti Airtel's sales are expected to rise 11.6 percent year on year to Rs 38,517 crore. This brokerage expects a 3 lakh net subscriber acquisition and an ARPU of Rs 203 for the quarter. "Africa, enterprise and home services will show steady growth ahead, while DTH business will be muted," according to the report.
ICICI Securities forecasts Bharti's ARPU to rise 1.5% year on year to Rs 203, owing to premiumisation, an additional day, and a price increase in the minimum recharge plan. This firm anticipates that Bharti Airtel's customer growth will increase to 50 lakh as a result of higher minimum recharges in recent quarters. Bharti's data subscriber addition is expected to remain stable at 56 lakh.
BNP Paribas forecasted 22% YoY revenue growth for Bharti Airtel's residential broadband segment in its Q2 preview. According to the brokerage, enterprise business sales growth should be in the double digits as well.
"We expect capex to remain elevated in 2HFY24 as Airtel continues to expand its rural 4G and urban 5G coverage," says the company. Due to the strong depreciation of the Nigerian Naira around the end of 1QFY24, Airtel's Africa revenue is expected to fall q-q. "However, its impact on our valuation for Airtel is negligible, as Airtel Africa (a publicly traded company) accounts for only 5% of our valuation," the company stated.