According to a survey conducted by the economic think tank GTRI, India's foreign trade is still expected to surpass the $1.6 trillion mark this fiscal year. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that the $1.6 trillion would constitute about 48% of India's nominal GDP, which was predicted to reach $3.4 trillion for the fiscal year ending March 2023.
According to GTRI co-founder Ajay Srivastava, the higher trade-to-GDP ratio demonstrates the country's high level of trade openness. Based on their analysis of the data, the think tank forecasted that the growth rate in service exports will be higher than that of product exports.
According to him, India's exports have performed better overall as a result of a faster growth rate in service exports than in product outbound shipments. From April to March 2023, India's overall exports of goods and services are expected to exceed $755 billion, a rise of 11.6% over the same period last year (April-March 2022). In fiscal year, India's merchandise exports are expected to increase by over 5% to $442 billion. According to this, service exports are expected to expand by 22.6% to $311.9 billion in 2022-2023.
"For the fiscal year ending March 2023, India's foreign trade (exports and imports of goods and services) is expected to exceed $1.6 trillion, or 48% of India's nominal GDP of $3.4 trillion," it added. In 2021-22, India's external trade will total $1.43 trillion.
Despite sectoral issues, the high trade results indicate the rise of commerce as a vital part of the Indian economy, according to the report. Among of the important industries that are expected to grow rapidly are basic and processed agricultural products, fish, meat, and dairy products, as well as petroleum products, chemicals, diamonds, machinery, and cars.
Among the top export destinations are the United States, the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands, China, Bangladesh, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Germany. In terms of export prospects for the upcoming fiscal year, Srivastava predicts that most nations will retreat inward by 2023 to protect themselves from global issues that were not their fault.
"Indian exports would be mildly damaged by sluggish global demand and recession in large economies," he noted, "but will gain since the local economy appears resilient and exports from high growth sectors like electronics are ramping up almost for the first time."
The survey also forecast that coal and petroleum product exports would total $98.2 billion this fiscal year, representing a 41% rise. Similarly, exports of electronics and electrical gear are expected to rise by roughly 36% to $27.4 billion. The commerce ministry will release the trade numbers for 2022-2023 on April 15.