GDP Figures are Expected to Surprise on the Positive Side

By Consultants Review Team Wednesday, 01 November 2023

According to early data, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das believes that India's GDP growth during the second quarter of FY24 will outperform expectations. He stated that the country's economic activity and different data factors led to a favorable surprise.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das believes GDP growth in the second quarter of FY24 will exceed estimates. The central bank forecasted GDP growth of 6.5% in the second quarter, matching the full-year growth prediction for FY24.

"Looking at the momentum of economic activity and several early data points and indicators that have emerged, I can confidently say that the second quarter GDP figures, expected to be released at the end of November, in all probability will surprise everyone on the upside," he added.

On Tuesday, the governor delivered these remarks during a fireside chat at a banking event hosted by Business Standard.

Simultaneously, Das emphasized geopolitical issues and their possible influence on financial markets as major worries. "Evolving geopolitics and new flashpoints are the most significant challenges for every country." "At the moment, I believe this is the greatest risk to global growth," Das added.

Das also emphasized the RBI's attention on high attrition rates in private banks inside the domestic banking system. Private banks reported surprisingly high attrition rates in their annual reports for the preceding fiscal years, with some reporting up to 50% turnover among their front-end staff. "We have requested that banks address this issue because, in the end, every bank must cultivate a core team for long-term growth." "There must be something called organizational culture," Das speculated.

Das also noted the RBI's analysis of bank business models to determine the risk appetite included into their strategies. "We are looking at balance-sheet structural issues to ensure that risk appetite is adequately supported by risk mitigation measures." "We're looking at bank revenue models, especially if they prioritize short-term gains over long-term risks," he said.

Das stated that central banks and regulators around the world have realized the necessity for increased supervision, particularly following bank collapses in the United States and Switzerland. " I can confidently state that our oversight has not fallen behind the times. It has remained in step with the demands of the world's expanding complexities in the financial industry."


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