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FICCI survey that India’s GDP is set to contract 8% in FY21

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract by 8 per cent in 2020-21, according to the latest study which was done by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry’s (Ficci’s) Economic Outlook Survey.

The annual median growth forecast by the industry body is based on responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. The survey was conducted in January. The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been pegged at 3.5 per cent for 2020-21. However, industry and services sector, which were severely hit due to the pandemic, are expected to contract by 10 per cent and 9.2 per cent, respectively, during 2020-21.

“The quarterly median forecasts indicate GDP growth to contract by 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2020-21. The growth is expected to be in the positive terrain by the fourth quarter with a projection of 0.5 per cent growth,” estimates the survey.

The quarterly median forecasts indicate GDP growth to contract by 1.3% in the third quarter of 2020-21. The growth is expected to be in the positive terrain by the fourth quarter with a projection of 0.5% growth

The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been pegged at 3.5% for 2020-21. "Agriculture sector has exhibited significant resilience in the face of the pandemic. Higher rabi acreage, good monsoons, higher reservoir levels and strong growth in tractor sales indicate continued buoyancy in the sector," the industry body stated.

Some of the contact intensive service sectors like tourism, hospitality, entertainment, education, and health sector are yet to see normalcy. "The quarterly median forecasts indicate GDP growth to contract by 1.3% in the third quarter of 2020-21. The growth is expected to be in the positive terrain by the fourth quarter with a projection of 0.5% growth," estimated the survey.

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